A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
